Real Madrid

3 - 2

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid hosted Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 3-2. Goals: A. Lookman (33'), Vinicius Junior (52' pen), F. Valverde (55'), N. Molina (66'), N. Molina (67'), Vinicius Junior (72'). Real Madrid received a red card (F. Valverde, 77'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 6 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$572.68 (ROI: +7.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.9.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Atletico Madrid 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 23.9%, with a combined stake of $2209. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.5% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 32.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2209.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 0-1 at 35'. A. Lookman scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Real Madrid +0.5 and Atletico Madrid. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $2202. The sharpest edge was on Real Madrid +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 27.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$102.22. ### Wave 3 — Minute 55' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after F. Valverde's equalizer at 55'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -1. Average expected value was 59.4%, with a combined stake of $2222. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 57.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$2360.55. ### Wave 4 — Minute 67' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after N. Molina's equalizer at 67'. Real Madrid made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 12.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 72' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 3-2 at 72'. Vinicius Junior scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.5. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $508. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 24.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$406.40. ### Wave 6 — Minute 77' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 3-2 at 77'. Vinicius Junior scored moments ago. Real Madrid down to 10 men (F. Valverde red card 77'). 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.5. Average expected value was 27.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$412.50.

- **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 40.0% (57.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 40.0% (57.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 41.2% (55.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid 0: AI saw 73.5% vs market's 41.2% (32.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid 0: AI saw 72.6% vs market's 41.2% (31.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$962.05 (ROI: +63.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$262.15 (ROI: +7.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-651.52 (ROI: -19.6%)

Possession was 52%–48% in Real Madrid's favor. Real Madrid had 17 shots (10 on target) versus Atletico Madrid's 13 (7 on target). Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.41 — Atletico Madrid 1. Corners: 4-1.