Real Madrid4 - 2Athletic Club
Real MadridWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 65.4% / 20.8% / 17.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 55.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 3 goals.
In a thrilling 4-2 encounter between Real Madrid and Athletic Club, Real Madrid secured a comfortable victory, aligning with the 1x2 market's expectation. The handicap line of -1 for Real Madrid was also covered with ease, showcasing their dominance. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite the closing line set at 3 goals with an 'Over' probability of 55.25%, the final tally of 6 goals far exceeded expectations. This stark discrepancy between the closing line's implied probability and the actual outcome signals a clear EV+ opportunity for 'Over 3 Goals' bettors, where the market sentiment underestimated the offensive potential.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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