Real Betis2 - 1Valencia
Real BetisWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-139 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Real Betis hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: L. Rioja (20'), C. Avila (23' pen), P. Fornals (88'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-139.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.76 to 1.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 48'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia -0.25. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $139. The sharpest edge was on Valencia -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-139.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-139.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Real Betis's favor. Real Betis had 13 shots (2 on target) versus Valencia's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: Real Betis 1.81 — Valencia 1.89. Corners: 3-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.6% / 28.0% / 22.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Over/Under 2.75 goals line, favoring the Under when the Over hit.
Real Betis secured a 2-1 victory over Valencia in a fixture that saw a notable market inefficiency in the Totals market. The 1x2 market correctly identified Real Betis as the market favorite with a 52.63% implied probability, aligning with their home win. Similarly, the Asian Handicap (-0.5 for Betis) was also covered, indicating the market's accurate assessment of Betis's superiority. However, the Closing Line for Goals Over/Under 2.75 showed a significant mispricing. The market heavily favored the Under 2.75 with a 54.05% implied probability, suggesting a low-scoring affair. With a final score of 2-1, the total goals reached 3, squarely hitting the Over 2.75. This represents a clear EV+ opportunity, as the market underestimated the offensive output, providing Closing Line Value for those who backed the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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