Real Betis1 - 1Rayo Vallecano
Real BetisWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-628 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Real Betis hosted Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: C. Bakambu (16'), I. Palazon (42'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-628.15 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.92; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.96.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Palazon's equalizer at 42'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Betis. Average expected value was 7.0%, with a combined stake of $628. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-628.15.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-628.15 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in Real Betis's deficit. Real Betis had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Rayo Vallecano's 12 (3 on target). Expected goals: Real Betis 1.83 — Rayo Vallecano 0.84. Corners: 3-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.1% / 28.4% / 22.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of the draw probability and overestimation of Real Betis's win.
The La Liga clash between Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano concluded in a 1-1 draw, a result that exposed notable market inefficiencies. The 1x2 moneyline had Real Betis as strong favorites with a 52.08% win probability, while the draw was priced at a mere 28.41%. This proved to be a significant mispricing, as the actual outcome was a draw, indicating substantial EV+ for draw bettors. On the Asian Handicap, Real Betis was given a -0.5 line, expected to cover with a 52.08% probability. With the match ending 1-1, Betis failed to cover, validating the Closing Line Value on Rayo Vallecano +0.5. The Totals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) market showed more efficiency, with the under being marginally favored at 52.08% probability. The match's 2 total goals fell squarely within the under expectation. Overall, the market's biggest error was underestimating the draw and overestimating Real Betis's ability to secure a decisive victory.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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