Real Betis3 - 0Oviedo
Real BetisWhy did AI enter 2 times at 41', 54' — and still finish $-4481?
Match Overview
Real Betis hosted Oviedo in the La Liga, finishing 3-0. Goals: Cucho Hernandez (22'), A. Ezzalzouli (45'), F. Vinas (53'), Cucho Hernandez (58'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4481.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 2.06 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Betis leading 1-0 at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Oviedo -1 and Oviedo -1.5. Average expected value was 40.5%, with a combined stake of $3415. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 48.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-3415.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 54' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Real Betis leading 2-1 at 54'. F. Vinas scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $1066. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1066.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 36.4% (48.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 84.1% vs market's 36.4% (47.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1.5: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 56.3% (28.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2236.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-2245.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Real Betis had 5 shots (1 on target) versus Oviedo's 1 (1 on target). Expected goals: Real Betis 0.41 — Oviedo 0.05.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-2236.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 62.9% / 23.8% / 16.8% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market significantly undervalued Real Betis -1.
Real Betis secured a commanding 3-0 victory over Oviedo. In the 1x2 market, the closing line correctly identified Real Betis as the significant favorite (62.89% implied probability), aligning with the outcome. However, the Asian Handicap market (-1 for Real Betis) presented a clear inefficiency. The market marginally favored Oviedo +1 (52.91%) to cover the spread, while Real Betis -1 was priced at 49.26%. With a 3-0 win, Real Betis comfortably covered the -1 line, indicating significant Closing Line Value (CLV) on Real Betis -1. The Totals (Over/Under 2.5) market saw almost balanced probabilities (Over 2.5 at 51.81% and Under 2.5 at 50.51%), with the match ending in 3 goals, hitting the Over. While the Over did come in, the marginal probabilistic edge and close pricing suggest less pronounced value compared to the handicap.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-2236.00.
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