Real Betis

1 - 1

Celta Vigo

Real Betis hosted Celta Vigo in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: F. Jutgla (4'), H. Bellerin (49'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$2349.97 (ROI: +46.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.83; the home moneyline shortened from 2.23 to 2.12.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Betis +0.5. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $1584. The sharpest edge was on Real Betis +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 30.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1524.98. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 0-1 at 39'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Celta Vigo 0. Average expected value was 29.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 27.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Celta Vigo leading 0-1 at 47'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Celta Vigo 0. Average expected value was 32.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after H. Bellerin's equalizer at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 21.2%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 52.7% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 23.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1400.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after H. Bellerin's equalizer at 49'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Celta Vigo -0.5. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Celta Vigo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$425.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis +0.5: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 49.4% (30.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Celta Vigo 0: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 36.4% (30.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Celta Vigo 0: AI saw 64.0% vs market's 36.4% (27.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis +0.5: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 52.6% (26.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Celta Vigo -0.5: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 54.1% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1335.10 (ROI: +47.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$1014.88 (ROI: +44.2%)

Possession was 51%–49% in Real Betis's favor. Real Betis had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Celta Vigo's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Real Betis 0.94 — Celta Vigo 0.56. Corners: 3-4.