Rayo Vallecano

1 - 1

Levante

Rayo Vallecano hosted Levante in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: C. Espi (41'), P. Ciss (90'). Rayo Vallecano received a red card (N. Mendy, 53'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$1908.70 (ROI: +21.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.92; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.99.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano and Levante 0. Average expected value was 14.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Levante 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.7% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 16.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Levante -0.5. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$462.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$875.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano and Rayo Vallecano +0.5 and Levante and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $3944. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 33.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$682.20. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Levante leading 0-1 at 48'. Rayo Vallecano made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Levante and Rayo Vallecano +0.5 and Levante 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $2460. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 39.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$389.00.

- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano +0.5: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 47.6% (39.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano +0.5: AI saw 82.0% vs market's 48.8% (33.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano +0.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 48.8% (32.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Levante 0: AI saw 56.1% vs market's 37.4% (18.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Levante 0: AI saw 53.7% vs market's 37.4% (16.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$868.45 (ROI: +27.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$651.25 (ROI: +19.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$389.00 (ROI: +15.8%)

Possession was 58%–42% in Rayo Vallecano's favor. Rayo Vallecano had 18 shots (4 on target) versus Levante's 19 (5 on target). Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.7 — Levante 1.27. Corners: 5-6.