Rayo Vallecano1 - 0Elche
Rayo VallecanoWhy did AI enter 3 times at 31', 34', 39' — and still finish $-2000?
Match Overview
Rayo Vallecano hosted Elche in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: R. Nteka (74'). Elche received a red card (P. Bigas, 39'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2000.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche -0.5. Average expected value was 2.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche -0.5. Average expected value was 3.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. Elche down to 10 men (P. Bigas red card 39'). 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.1% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 7.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1000.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1000.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 60%–40% in Rayo Vallecano's favor. Rayo Vallecano had 21 shots (5 on target) versus Elche's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.36 — Elche 0.44. Corners: 9-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1000.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 56.2% / 26.0% / 20.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.75 Goals market was significantly overvalued.
The La Liga fixture between Rayo Vallecano and Elche concluded 1-0, a result that offers valuable insights into market efficiency. In the 1x2 market, Rayo Vallecano closed as the favorite with an implied win probability of 56.18%, which proved accurate as they secured the victory. For the Asian Handicap, Rayo Vallecano was set at -0.75. Their 1-0 win meant they successfully covered the half-win portion of this line, providing a positive return for backers, despite the market favoring Elche to cover +0.75 slightly (52.08%). However, the most notable inefficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.75, the market anticipated a higher-scoring affair than the single goal produced. While the "Under" had a marginal lean with 53.76% implied probability, the significant deviation from the actual outcome (1 goal) meant the "Over 2.75 Goals" market was severely mispriced. This outcome strongly validates a betting strategy focused on detecting low-scoring games where the market overestimates offensive output.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1000.00.
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