Rayo Vallecano3 - 0Atletico Madrid
Rayo VallecanoWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-63 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Rayo Vallecano hosted Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 3-0. Goals: F. Perez (40'), O. Valentin (45'), N. Mendy (76'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-62.53 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.25 to 4.66.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 2-0 at 45'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under -0.25. Average expected value was 2.1%, with a combined stake of $63. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-62.53.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-62.53 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in Rayo Vallecano's deficit. Rayo Vallecano had 13 shots (9 on target) versus Atletico Madrid's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.56 — Atletico Madrid 1.1. Corners: 4-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 21.5% / 27.9% / 53.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market severely underestimated Rayo Vallecano's capacity to secure an outright win.
Rayo Vallecano's dominant 3-0 victory over Atletico Madrid exposed a significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 betting market. Atletico Madrid was priced as the clear favorite with an implied win probability of 53.76%, while Rayo Vallecano's outright win was given only a 21.46% chance. This result delivered substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors backing Rayo Vallecano. Furthermore, the market expected Atletico Madrid to cover the -0.5 Asian Handicap at 53.48%, another clear miss. The Over/Under 2.25 goals market, however, correctly anticipated a higher-scoring affair with 3 goals scored, aligning with the 54.35% probability for the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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