Rayo Vallecano1 - 1Athletic Club
Rayo VallecanoWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-100 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Rayo Vallecano hosted Athletic Club in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. de Frutos (35'), J. de Frutos (36'), I. Williams (47'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at 0.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano -0.25. Average expected value was 4.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in Rayo Vallecano's deficit. Rayo Vallecano had 15 shots (7 on target) versus Athletic Club's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.33 — Athletic Club 0.54. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.8% / 31.6% / 32.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 55.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market undervalued the probability of a Draw.
The match between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club concluded in a 1-1 draw. Analysis of the closing 1x2 market revealed that Rayo Vallecano was the slight market favorite with an implied win probability of 38.76%, while the draw held a 31.55% probability. The actual outcome, a draw, indicates a Market Inefficiency as the bookmakers assigned a lower probability to the eventual result compared to the favorite's win. On the Handicap market (line 0), the market slightly favored Rayo Vallecano (55.56% to cover), but the draw meant neither team covered. The Totals market (O/U 2.25) leaned towards the Under (53.48% probability). With 2 total goals, the Under 2.25 bet resulted in a half-win, suggesting relative efficiency in this specific line for the total goals. However, the most significant mispricing was in the 1x2 market.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.