Oviedo

1 - 0

Valencia

Oviedo hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: D. Costas (30'), A. Reina (77'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 3 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-115.10 (ROI: -1.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.13; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 2.07 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.77 to 3.03.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Valencia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 15.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Oviedo leading 1-0 at 31'. D. Costas scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Valencia -1 and Oviedo and Over 1.5 and Valencia -0.5. Average expected value was 28.5%, with a combined stake of $3812. The sharpest edge was on Valencia -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 34.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 5 of 6 trades won, netting +$2384.90. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Oviedo leading 1-0 at 47'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 92.9% vs market's 58.8% (34.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 92.8% vs market's 58.8% (34.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -0.5: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 42.6% (29.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -0.5: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 42.6% (29.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.4% (17.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$146.40 (ROI: +4.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-261.50 (ROI: -9.3%)

Possession was 42%–58% in Oviedo's deficit. Oviedo had 11 shots (6 on target) versus Valencia's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: Oviedo 0.87 — Valencia 0.26. Corners: 4-6.