Oviedo1 - 0Sevilla
OviedoWhy did AI enter 2 times at 26', 39' — and still finish $-1150?
Match Overview
Oviedo hosted Sevilla in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: F. Vinas (32'). Sevilla received a red card (T. Nianzou, 38'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1150.00 (ROI: -28.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.95; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.68 to 2.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Sevilla 0 and Draw and Oviedo. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on Sevilla 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 1 of 7 trades won, netting $-1800.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Oviedo leading 1-0 at 39'. Sevilla down to 10 men (T. Nianzou red card 38'). 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sevilla -0.5. Average expected value was 33.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Sevilla -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 31.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$650.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla -0.5: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 43.5% (31.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-150.00 (ROI: -5.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1000.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70%–30% in Oviedo's favor. Oviedo had 7 shots (4 on target) versus Sevilla's 9 (0 on target). Expected goals: Oviedo 0.59 — Sevilla 0.65. Corners: 5-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -28.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-150.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.5% / 34.3% / 34.6% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 55.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.0 Goals line was significantly mispriced, creating a strong Under 2.0 Value Signal.
Oviedo secured a 1-0 victory over Sevilla in a low-scoring affair. The 1x2 market, with Sevilla as a marginal favorite (34.6% implied win probability vs. Oviedo's 34.48%), largely missed the outright Oviedo win, presenting potential Closing Line Value for those backing the home side. On the Asian Handicap 0.0, the market was evenly split (51.28% for both sides), and Oviedo covering the line by winning outright signifies a correct projection for those who identified their win potential. However, the most glaring market inefficiency was in the Totals market. The market heavily favored Over 2.0 Goals with an implied probability of 55.56%. The actual outcome of just 1 goal exposed a clear mispricing, indicating a strong Value Signal for the Under 2.0 goals.
A tough session at -28.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-150.00.
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