Oviedo0 - 0Getafe
OviedoWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 29', 42', 49' — and still finish $-2420?
Match Overview
Oviedo hosted Getafe in the La Liga, finishing 0-0. Oviedo received a red card (J. Lopez, 54'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 4 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2420.00 (ROI: -82.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.92; the Over/Under stayed at 1.75 with Over odds moving from 1.76 to 1.87.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.75. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $420. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-420.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Getafe 0. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 11.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 13.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 29'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 51.3% vs market's 40.0% (11.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-420.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/2L/1V, $-1000.00 (ROI: -66.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46–54 in Oviedo's deficit. Oviedo had 7 shots (4 on target) versus Getafe's 20 (4 on target). Expected goals: Oviedo 0.29 — Getafe 1.37. Corners: 1-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -82.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-420.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.0% / 32.4% / 34.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 1.75 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The significant overestimation of goals in the Over/Under 1.75 market.
The La Liga fixture between Oviedo and Getafe concluded in a 0-0 draw, diverging significantly from market expectations in the Totals market. The 1x2 market closed with implied probabilities of Oviedo win (35.97%), Draw (32.36%), and Getafe win (34.36%). The actual draw indicates a slight underestimation of this outcome by the market. In the Asian Handicap (0.0), Oviedo was marginally favored to cover at 52.08% probability, but the goalless draw meant neither side covered the spread. The most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Over/Under 1.75 goals market. Despite the match ending 0-0, the closing line implied a strong lean towards Over (53.48%). The actual outcome of 0 goals resulted in a clear Under 1.75 goals, signaling a significant mispricing and a strong EV+ signal for the Under prior to kick-off.
A tough session at -82.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-420.00.
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