Oviedo1 - 2Elche
Oviedo2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Oviedo hosted Elche in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: P. Bigas (6'), G. Villar (16'), I. Chaira (76'). Elche received a red card (G. Valera, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1966.90 (ROI: +130.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 2.02; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 80' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Elche leading 1-2 at 80'. I. Chaira scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Oviedo +1.5. Average expected value was 56.2%, with a combined stake of $1513. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 53.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1966.90.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo +1.5: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 43.5% (53.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo +1.5: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 43.5% (53.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$984.10 (ROI: +130.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$982.80 (ROI: +130.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Oviedo's favor. Oviedo had 1 shots (1 on target) versus Elche's 3 (3 on target). Expected goals: Oviedo 0.02 — Elche 0.41. Corners: 1-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$984.10.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.9% / 28.6% / 31.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced Over 2.5 goals.
The match between Oviedo and Elche concluded 1-2, resulting in 3 total goals. The 1x2 market saw Oviedo as slight favorites with a 42.92% implied probability, yet Elche secured the away win. In the Asian Handicap market, Elche +0.25 was marginally favored at 52.36% and indeed covered. However, the most striking market inefficiency was in the Totals market. Despite 3 goals being scored, the closing line had a strong lean towards Under 2.5 Goals with a 53.76% implied probability (vs 48.54% for Over). This clearly indicates a significant EV+ signal for the Over, where bookmakers mispriced the goal-scoring potential.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI on 2 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$984.10.
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