Oviedo1 - 2Athletic Club
Oviedo1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Oviedo hosted Athletic Club in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: I. Chaira (30'), M. Jauregizar (58'), O. Sancet (70' pen), O. Sancet (71' pen). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1073.52 (ROI: +150.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 2.02; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.67 to 3.78.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Athletic Club. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $716. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1073.52.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1073.52 (ROI: +150.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Oviedo's favor. Oviedo had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Athletic Club's 13 (4 on target). Expected goals: Oviedo 0.34 — Athletic Club 1.2. Corners: 2-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +150.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 26.5% / 31.9% / 44.4% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 47.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the Over 2.25 goals, failing to predict the 3-goal outcome.
In the La Liga clash, Athletic Club secured a 2-1 victory over Oviedo, resulting in 3 total goals. The 1x2 market correctly identified Athletic Club as the market favorite, with a 44.44% implied win probability. The -0.25 Asian Handicap saw Athletic Club cover with a 52.36% probability of doing so. However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the game ending with 3 goals (Over 2.25), the closing goal line priced the Over at a mere 47.17% probability, while the Under was favored at 55.25%. This represents a clear value signal for those who backed the Over, as the market sentiment heavily leaned towards a low-scoring affair, which ultimately proved incorrect.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +150.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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