Oviedo0 - 1Alaves
OviedoWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 18', 23' — and still finish +$78?
Match Overview
Oviedo hosted Alaves in the La Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: T. Martinez (17'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$77.68 (ROI: +24.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.57 to 4.04.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Oviedo. Average expected value was 27.2%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 32.0% probability versus the market's implied 24.8% — a 7.3 percentage point gap at odds of 4.04. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Alaves leading 0-1 at 18'. T. Martinez scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves and Oviedo +1. Average expected value was 32.3%, with a combined stake of $173. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.1% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.125. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$222.68. ### Wave 3 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Alaves leading 0-1 at 23'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $120. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-120.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 18'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo +1: AI saw 68.7% vs market's 47.1% (21.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 18'** — Moneyline Alaves: AI saw 62.7% vs market's 42.0% (20.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 18'** — Moneyline Alaves: AI saw 62.7% vs market's 42.0% (20.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$91.80 (ROI: +54.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$70.88 (ROI: +112.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-60.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70–30 in Oviedo's favor. Oviedo had 5 shots (0 on target) versus Alaves's 7 (1 on target). Expected goals: Oviedo 0.31 — Alaves 1.46. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$91.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 24.8% / 29.4% / 48.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market underestimated Alaves' ability to cover the -0.5 spread.
The match between Oviedo and Alaves concluded 0-1, with Alaves securing the away victory. In the 1x2 market, Alaves was the outright favorite with an implied win probability of 48.78%, aligning with the eventual outcome. However, the Asian Handicap market at line 0.5 presented a notable inefficiency. The market marginally favored Oviedo +0.5 at 53.48% probability, while Alaves -0.5 had a 48.54% implied probability. With Alaves winning 0-1, they successfully covered the -0.5 spread, indicating that the market slightly undervalued Alaves' capacity to win by a clear margin. The Totals market with an O/U line of 2.25 was efficient, as the actual single goal perfectly aligned with the market's slight lean towards the Under (51.81% probability). OddsFlow identifies a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on Alaves -0.5 Handicap.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.4% ROI on 7 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$91.80.
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