Osasuna2 - 2Villarreal
OsasunaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 22', 75' — and still finish $-180?
Match Overview
Osasuna hosted Villarreal in the La Liga, finishing 2-2. Goals: G. Moreno (17' pen), V. Munoz (20'), A. Budimir (45'), G. Moreno (70'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-179.82 (ROI: -24.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 3.05 to 2.81.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 22' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after V. Munoz's equalizer at 20'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna 0. Average expected value was 5.9%, with a combined stake of $570. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.2% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 75' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after G. Moreno's equalizer at 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 4.5 and Osasuna -1. Average expected value was 3.7%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-179.82.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 9 trades, 0W/6L/3V, $-179.82 (ROI: -24.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Osasuna's deficit. Osasuna had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Villarreal's 5 (4 on target). Expected goals: Osasuna 1.12 — Villarreal 0.92. Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -24.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 35.6% / 30.1% / 37.6% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of Over 2.5 Goals
The match between Osasuna and Villarreal concluded in an enthralling 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. The 1x2 market closing probabilities showed Villarreal as the slight favorite (37.59%), with the draw at 30.12%. The actual draw outcome suggests the market slightly undervalued this possibility. On the Asian Handicap (0), the market offered near even odds, slightly favoring Villarreal (52.63% to cover), which resulted in a push given the draw. However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5) market. The closing line indicated a slight lean towards the Under (52.08% probability for Under 2.5), despite OddsFlow's model identifying a strong potential for goals. With 4 goals scored, the 'Over 2.5 Goals' was an EV+ outcome, demonstrating a clear failure by bookmakers to accurately price the goal expectancy. This highlights a critical market misjudgment of the fixture's offensive potential.
A tough session at -24.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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