Osasuna2 - 1Sevilla
OsasunaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 66', 80' — and still finish +$943?
Match Overview
Osasuna hosted Sevilla in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: N. Maupay (69'), R. Garcia (80'), A. Catena (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 2 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$942.90 (ROI: +13.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Sevilla 0 and Over 0.5 and Draw and Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 and Osasuna +0.5. Average expected value was 28.3%, with a combined stake of $5739. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 47.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 7 of 11 trades won, netting +$2096.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 80' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Sevilla leading 0-1 at 80'. R. Garcia scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 27.9%, with a combined stake of $1154. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 88.1% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1154.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 83.9% vs market's 36.4% (47.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 36.4% (47.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 50.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla 0: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 36.4% (29.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Sevilla 0: AI saw 65.4% vs market's 36.4% (29.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$736.45 (ROI: +27.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$500.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-293.55 (ROI: -8.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in Osasuna's favor. Osasuna had 6 shots (2 on target) versus Sevilla's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Osasuna 0.61 — Sevilla 0.18. Corners: 3-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +13.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$736.45.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 50.8% / 29.0% / 23.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Totals market (O/U 2.25) failed to accurately price the likelihood of goals, with an even probability split despite a clear Over outcome.
Osasuna secured a 2-1 victory over Sevilla. In the 1x2 market, Osasuna was correctly identified as the slight favorite with a 50.76% implied probability, aligning with the actual outcome. However, significant market inefficiencies were evident elsewhere. For the Asian Handicap (-0.5), Osasuna covered their line despite the market showing a marginal lean towards Sevilla covering their +0.5 handicap (51.55% vs 50.51% for Osasuna), indicating a potential EV+ signal on Osasuna -0.5. The most pronounced inefficiency was in the Totals market (O/U 2.25). The market set an even 51.28% probability for both Over and Under, but the match finished with 3 goals, clearly surpassing the 2.25 line. This represented a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors backing the Over.
A positive result with +13.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$942.90. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$736.45.
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