Osasuna1 - 1Real Betis
OsasunaWhy did AI enter 5 times at 28', 31', 40', 46', 49' — and still finish +$3228?
Match Overview
Osasuna hosted Real Betis in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: A. Ezzalzouli (7'), A. Budimir (39' pen), A. Budimir (40' pen). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$3228.05 (ROI: +47.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 1.93; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.96.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Betis leading 0-1 at 28'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Osasuna +0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 32.2%, with a combined stake of $2241. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 34.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1328.05. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Betis leading 0-1 at 31'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Osasuna -0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 15.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$800.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Budimir's equalizer at 40'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Real Betis 0 and Draw and Osasuna. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Real Betis 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 15.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting +$550.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Budimir's equalizer at 40'. Real Betis made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1050.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Budimir's equalizer at 40'. Real Betis made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Osasuna. Average expected value was 15.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.6% probability versus the market's implied 20.0% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 83.0% vs market's 48.8% (34.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 48.8% (33.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 45.5% (21.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 31'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 63.4% vs market's 45.5% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Moneyline Osasuna: AI saw 37.6% vs market's 20.0% (17.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1622.95 (ROI: +48.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1605.10 (ROI: +47.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in Osasuna's favor. Osasuna had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Real Betis's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Osasuna 1.32 — Real Betis 0.4. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1622.95.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.8% / 28.8% / 29.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market heavily underestimated the probability of a draw.
The La Liga clash between Osasuna and Real Betis concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced the outcome, with the draw having the lowest implied probability at 28.82%. This represented a clear value signal for bettors who identified the potential for a stalemate. On the Asian Handicap, Osasuna, opening at -0.25 with a 51.81% cover probability, failed to secure the win, meaning Real Betis covered the +0.25 spread. For the Totals market, the closing line was 2.5 goals, with the market slightly leaning towards the Under (51.81%). The actual total of 2 goals confirmed the Under, indicating reasonable efficiency in this particular market segment.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.9% ROI on 12 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1622.95.
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