Osasuna

1 - 0

Girona

Osasuna hosted Girona in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Budimir (80'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 23% precision with a net result of $-1820.00 (ROI: -24.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 1.96; the home moneyline shortened from 2.26 to 2.05.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Girona 0 and Girona and Draw. Average expected value was 16.5%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Girona 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.9% probability versus the market's implied 35.7% — a 26.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.8. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-3000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 80' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Osasuna leading 1-0 at 80'. A. Budimir scored moments ago. Girona made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1 and Osasuna. Average expected value was 29.1%, with a combined stake of $3864. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 33.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$1680.00.

- **Minute 80'** — Moneyline Osasuna: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 47.2% (33.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Moneyline Osasuna: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 47.2% (32.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Girona 0: AI saw 61.9% vs market's 35.7% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Girona 0: AI saw 61.3% vs market's 35.7% (25.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Girona 0: AI saw 61.1% vs market's 35.7% (25.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-440.00 (ROI: -19.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-440.00 (ROI: -19.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-940.00 (ROI: -33.7%)

Possession was 48%–52% in Osasuna's deficit. Osasuna had 18 shots (10 on target) versus Girona's 5 (0 on target). Expected goals: Osasuna 1.44 — Girona 0.22. Corners: 6-2.