Osasuna1 - 2Espanyol
OsasunaWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 14', 25', 37', 49', 60', 67' — and still finish $-545?
Match Overview
Osasuna hosted Espanyol in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: C. Romero (27'), V. Munoz (49'), K. Garcia (53'). OddsFlow deployed 28 trades across 7 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-545.46 (ROI: -30.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.76 to 2.12; the home moneyline drifted out from 2 to 2.23.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Osasuna. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $48. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 59.7% probability versus the market's implied 44.8% — a 14.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.23. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-48.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 14' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 14'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Osasuna -0.5 and Osasuna. Average expected value was 21.0%, with a combined stake of $359. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 56.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 14.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 7 trades lost, netting $-359.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Osasuna +0.5. Average expected value was 20.9%, with a combined stake of $243. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$222.60. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Espanyol leading 0-1 at 37'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna +0.5. Average expected value was 39.5%, with a combined stake of $125. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 37.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$118.75. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Espanyol leading 0-1 at 49'. V. Munoz scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3 and Under 3.5 and Osasuna and Osasuna -0.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $358. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.3% — a 37.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.16. **Result:** 1 of 6 trades won, netting $-114.77. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Espanyol leading 1-2 at 60'. Espanyol made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Espanyol. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $120. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$81.96. ### Wave 7 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Espanyol leading 1-2 at 67'. Espanyol made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Espanyol and Over 3.5 and Over 3.75. Average expected value was 27.5%, with a combined stake of $540. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 21.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** 1 of 7 trades won, netting $-447.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 50.0% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 51.3% (37.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 46.3% (37.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Over 3.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.1% (21.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Over 3.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.1% (21.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$63.00 (ROI: +34.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-48.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 10 trades, 3W/6L/1V, $-116.06 (ROI: -16.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-209.20 (ROI: -50.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-235.20 (ROI: -52.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 68–32 in Osasuna's favor. Osasuna had 21 shots (8 on target) versus Espanyol's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Osasuna 1.37 — Espanyol 0.79. Corners: 7-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -30.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$63.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.8% / 34.5% / 23.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 47.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimated Away Win & Over 2.25 Goals
The match concluded with Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol. Our OddsFlow model detected significant market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, the closing lines had Osasuna as the favorite with a 44.84% win probability, while Espanyol's away win probability was only 23.42%. Espanyol's victory represents a clear value signal for the underdog. On the handicap market, Osasuna was favored at -0.25, with a 53.76% chance to cover. Espanyol not only won outright but also comfortably covered the +0.25 handicap, indicating an overestimation of Osasuna's strength. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market closed with a lean towards Under 2.25 goals (56.18% probability), yet the game finished with 3 goals, hitting the Over. This highlights a critical mispricing by bookmakers across multiple key markets.
A tough session at -30.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$63.00.
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