Osasuna1 - 2Atletico Madrid
OsasunaWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 15', 25', 49', 53', 65', 70' — and still finish +$2713?
Match Overview
Osasuna hosted Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: A. Lookman (14' pen), A. Lookman (15' pen), A. Sorloth (71'), K. Barja (90'). Atletico Madrid received a red card (M. Llorente, 79'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 7 waves, achieving 48% precision with a net result of +$2712.93 (ROI: +31.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.91; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Osasuna. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna -0.25 and Osasuna +0.5. Average expected value was 43.5%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 27.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-300.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna -0.25 and Osasuna +0.5. Average expected value was 47.1%, with a combined stake of $2099. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 34.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting +$1626.43. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 0-1 at 49'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Atletico Madrid. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$307.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 0-1 at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.25 and Under 2.5 and Atletico Madrid. Average expected value was 22.4%, with a combined stake of $1870. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 17.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** 1 of 7 trades won, netting $-1062.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 0-1 at 65'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.75 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 18.8%, with a combined stake of $1376. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$824.80. ### Wave 7 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico Madrid leading 0-1 at 70'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna +1 and Osasuna 0. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $2192. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1516.70.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 48.2% (34.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna +0.5: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 48.2% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.25: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 53.5% (28.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.25: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 54.1% (28.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.25: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 53.5% (28.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 6W/3L/2V, +$1276.98 (ROI: +36.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 6W/3L/2V, +$1243.58 (ROI: +35.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$692.38 (ROI: +65.6%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-300.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Osasuna's favor. Osasuna had 23 shots (5 on target) versus Atletico Madrid's 5 (4 on target). Expected goals: Osasuna 2.05 — Atletico Madrid 1.64. Corners: 8-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +31.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1276.98.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.8% / 27.3% / 36.8% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the total goals, leaning Under 2.75 when 3 goals were scored.
The match between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid concluded 1:2, with Atletico Madrid securing an away victory. In the 1x2 market, Osasuna was the slight market favorite (38.76% implied probability), despite Atletico Madrid ultimately winning. The Asian Handicap (0) also saw Osasuna slightly favored to cover (52.36%). However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.75, the market leaned marginally towards the Under (51.81% probability). The final score of 3 goals (1:2) clearly resulted in the Over 2.75 hitting, indicating a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on the Over. This suggests a **steam move** or misjudgment by the oddsmakers on the total goal expectancy.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +31.8% ROI on 27 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1276.98.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.