Mallorca1 - 1Villarreal
MallorcaWhy did AI enter 9 times at 0', 15', 25', 34', 44', 49', 57', 62', 67' — and still finish +$117?
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Villarreal in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: A. Perez (31' pen), V. Muriqi (45'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 9 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of +$117.08 (ROI: +1.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 1.84; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.84; the home moneyline shortened from 2.7 to 2.49.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Mallorca. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca -0.5. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 47.5% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Villarreal 0 and Mallorca and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Villarreal 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 9.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-429.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Villarreal leading 0-1 at 34'. A. Perez scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca +0.5. Average expected value was 35.8%, with a combined stake of $1001. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 33.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1076.08. ### Wave 5 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Villarreal leading 0-1 at 44'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Villarreal. Average expected value was 4.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after V. Muriqi's equalizer at 45'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$812.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after V. Muriqi's equalizer at 45'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.1% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1057.50. ### Wave 8 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 62'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 12.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 9 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 67'. Mallorca made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca +0.5: AI saw 81.3% vs market's 48.2% (33.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca +0.5: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 48.2% (32.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.0% vs market's 40.0% (20.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 55.6% (14.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$635.50 (ROI: +21.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/3L/1V, +$381.58 (ROI: +9.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-700.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56–44 in Mallorca's favor. Mallorca had 17 shots (7 on target) versus Villarreal's 7 (2 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 1.71 — Villarreal 1.13. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +1.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$635.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.2% / 27.3% / 35.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated total goals, creating a strong Under 2.75 value signal.
The Mallorca vs Villarreal clash concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market mildly favored Mallorca (40.16% win probability), while the draw was deemed less likely at 27.32%. The actual draw outcome suggests a slight underestimation of the draw probability by the closing line. In the Asian Handicap market, Mallorca was the +0 favorite at 54.35% to cover, which ultimately failed to materialize with the level scoreline. The most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under 2.75) market. The model indicated a strong lean towards the Over (54.35% probability). However, the match produced only two goals, resulting in a decisive Under 2.75 outcome. This represents a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who identified the Under.
A positive result with +1.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$117.08. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$635.50.
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