Mallorca1 - 1Valencia
MallorcaWhy did AI enter 8 times at 21', 25', 28', 44', 48', 54', 57', 68' — and still finish +$6490?
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: Samu Costa (49'), U. Sadiq (67'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 8 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$6490.25 (ROI: +61.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.46 to 2.64.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 21' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 21'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca -0.5. Average expected value was 11.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.1% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 8.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Mallorca and Mallorca -0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 49.5% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1334.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia 0. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Valencia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 7.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Valencia 0 and Mallorca. Average expected value was 16.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 21.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$171.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 48'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Valencia -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $2111. The sharpest edge was on Valencia -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 35.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$4444.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mallorca leading 1-0 at 54'. Samu Costa scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Valencia -1. Average expected value was 40.9%, with a combined stake of $830. The sharpest edge was on Valencia -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$767.75. ### Wave 7 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mallorca leading 1-0 at 57'. 2 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 16.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$766.50. ### Wave 8 — Minute 68' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after U. Sadiq's equalizer at 67'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 29.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 54.5% probability versus the market's implied 21.1% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 4.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1875.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 90.9% vs market's 51.9% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 85.1% vs market's 50.0% (35.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Valencia -1: AI saw 85.0% vs market's 50.0% (35.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 54.5% vs market's 21.1% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 57.9% (21.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$2409.25 (ROI: +85.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1918.00 (ROI: +54.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1863.00 (ROI: +52.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$300.00 (ROI: +42.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in Mallorca's favor. Mallorca had 20 shots (8 on target) versus Valencia's 10 (3 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 1.76 — Valencia 1.49. Corners: 7-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +61.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$2409.25.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 37.9% / 31.4% / 33.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the likelihood of Over 2.25 goals.
The La Liga clash between Mallorca and Valencia concluded in a 1-1 draw, a result that diverged significantly from key market expectations. The 1x2 market initially favored Mallorca with a 37.88% implied win probability, while the draw stood at 31.45% and Valencia at 33.44%. The actual draw meant the market slightly undervalued the draw outcome. On the Asian Handicap 0, Mallorca was the favorite to cover at 54.05%. With the match ending 1-1, the handicap market resulted in a push. The most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market, where the Over 2.25 goals was favored with a 51.81% implied probability. However, the match yielded only two goals, leading to the Under 2.25 hitting, indicating a clear value signal against the closing line.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +61.0% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$2409.25.
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