Mallorca4 - 1Sevilla
Mallorca2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Sevilla in the La Liga, finishing 4-1. Goals: V. Muriqi (24' pen), V. Muriqi (26' pen), N. Maupay (45'), Samu Costa (53'), V. Muriqi (74'), S. Darder (74'), P. Torre (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$299.77 (ROI: +82.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 1.87; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.6 to 2.72.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca 0. Average expected value was 6.0%, with a combined stake of $363. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 6.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$299.77.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$299.77 (ROI: +82.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33%–67% in Mallorca's deficit. Mallorca had 10 shots (6 on target) versus Sevilla's 15 (5 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 2.24 — Sevilla 0.85. Corners: 4-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +82.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.8% / 32.6% / 33.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued Mallorca's outright win, indicating a strong Value Bet.
The fixture between Mallorca and Sevilla concluded with a dominant 4-1 victory for Mallorca. Analyzing the pre-match closing lines, the 1x2 market assigned Mallorca a win probability of only 36.76%, making them a slight favorite but heavily underpricing their potential for a comprehensive win. Sevilla's implied win probability was 33.44%, while a draw stood at 32.57%. The actual 4-1 scoreline highlights a significant market misjudgment, presenting a clear EV+ opportunity for backers of the home side. In the Handicap market (line 0), Mallorca was favored to cover with 53.48% probability. Their emphatic 3-goal winning margin easily covered this line, further validating the underestimation of Mallorca's strength. For the Totals market (Over/Under 2), the market leaned towards the Over with 54.35% probability. With 5 goals scored, the 'Over' bet was a comfortable winner, indicating the market correctly identified a higher-scoring potential, albeit perhaps not the full extent of it. Overall, the most glaring inefficiency was in the 1x2 market, where Mallorca's dominant performance was not adequately reflected in their closing odds.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +82.5% ROI on 2 trades.
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