Mallorca0 - 1Real Sociedad
MallorcaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-100 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Real Sociedad in the La Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: C. Soler (36'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.98; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.89 to 3.16.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 0-1 at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad +0.25. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43%–57% in Mallorca's deficit. Mallorca had 6 shots (1 on target) versus Real Sociedad's 12 (2 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 0.66 — Real Sociedad 0.46. Corners: 2-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.6% / 30.1% / 41.0% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 47.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Real Sociedad -0.25 Asian Handicap
The match between Mallorca and Real Sociedad concluded with a 0-1 victory for Real Sociedad. In the 1x2 market, Real Sociedad was correctly identified as the market favorite with a 40.98% win probability. However, the true market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market. Despite Real Sociedad successfully covering the -0.25 line with their 1-0 win, the closing line implied only a 47.85% chance for them to cover. This represented a clear value signal on Real Sociedad (-0.25 HDP), as the bookmakers underestimated their ability to secure a narrow victory and cover the spread. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market was relatively efficient, with the Under 2.25 line closing at a 52.08% probability, which aligned with the single goal scored in the match.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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