Mallorca2 - 1Real Madrid
MallorcaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 45', 69' — and still finish +$2129?
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Real Madrid in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: M. Morlanes (41'), Eder Militao (88'), V. Muriqi (90'). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 2 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$2128.85 (ROI: +19.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 1.96; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.19 to 5.66.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mallorca leading 1-0 at 45'. M. Morlanes scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Real Madrid 0 and Real Madrid +1 and Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $9126. The sharpest edge was on Real Madrid 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.3% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 35.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 7 of 15 trades won, netting +$530.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mallorca leading 1-0 at 69'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Madrid -0.5. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $1938. The sharpest edge was on Real Madrid -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 31.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1598.85.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Real Madrid 0: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 52.6% (35.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Real Madrid 0: AI saw 88.2% vs market's 52.6% (35.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Real Madrid 0: AI saw 88.0% vs market's 52.6% (35.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Real Madrid -0.5: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 54.8% (31.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Real Madrid -0.5: AI saw 85.7% vs market's 54.8% (30.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$886.83 (ROI: +28.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$711.65 (ROI: +17.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$530.38 (ROI: +14.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in Mallorca's deficit. Mallorca had 6 shots (2 on target) versus Real Madrid's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 1.22 — Real Madrid 1.19. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +19.2% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$886.83.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 17.7% / 22.0% / 64.1% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Mallorca's chances, providing a strong Value Signal on the outright home win.
The match concluded with a surprising 2-1 victory for Mallorca over Real Madrid. The 1x2 market exhibited a significant **Market Inefficiency**, pricing Real Madrid as strong favorites with an implied win probability of 64.1%, while Mallorca's outright win was given only a 17.67% chance. This clear misjudgment by bookmakers highlights a strong **Value Signal** for those backing the underdog. On the **Asian Handicap** market, Real Madrid was set at -1. Mallorca's 2-1 win meant they comfortably covered the +1 handicap, which was priced at 51.02% probability. The **Totals (Over/Under 3.0)** line resulted in a push, as exactly 3 goals were scored. The market leaned slightly to the Under (54.05% implied probability), but the outcome rendered the bet void, indicating no strong **EV+** or **EV-** on this specific line.
A positive result with +19.2% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$2128.85. Top performer: Active Trader at +$886.83.
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