Mallorca3 - 0Rayo Vallecano
MallorcaWhat went wrong? 9 trades, $-405 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga, finishing 3-0. Goals: V. Muriqi (36'), V. Muriqi (40'), J. Virgili (65'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 1 wave, achieving 44% precision with a net result of $-405.00 (ROI: -7.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 2.02; the home moneyline shortened from 2.57 to 2.43.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano 0 and Draw and Rayo Vallecano -1 and Mallorca and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 21.7%, with a combined stake of $5280. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.2% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 38.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 4 of 9 trades won, netting $-405.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano -1: AI saw 90.2% vs market's 51.3% (38.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano -1: AI saw 85.0% vs market's 51.3% (33.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Moneyline Mallorca: AI saw 65.5% vs market's 40.0% (25.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano 0: AI saw 62.9% vs market's 46.5% (16.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Moneyline Mallorca: AI saw 56.5% vs market's 42.1% (14.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-138.50 (ROI: -5.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-266.50 (ROI: -9.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45%–55% in Mallorca's deficit. Mallorca had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Rayo Vallecano's 17 (3 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 1.68 — Rayo Vallecano 1.43. Corners: 6-7.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -7.7% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-138.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 41.1% / 31.0% / 30.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.25 goals market was mispriced.
Mallorca secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Rayo Vallecano. The 1x2 market showed Mallorca as the slight favorite, aligning with the actual outcome. In the Asian Handicap market (-0.25), the market slightly favored Rayo +0.25 to cover, yet Mallorca easily cleared the line with a dominant win, indicating some mispricing. However, the most glaring **market inefficiency** was in the **Totals (Over/Under 2.25 goals)** market. Despite the market leaning towards the Under (52.91% implied probability), the match produced 3 goals, decisively landing in the Over territory. This presented a clear **EV+ opportunity** for those backing the Over.
A marginally negative session at -7.7% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-138.50.
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