Mallorca3 - 0Oviedo
MallorcaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 10', 44' — and still finish $-845?
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Oviedo in the La Liga, finishing 3-0. Goals: P. Torre (42'), M. Morlanes (83'), V. Muriqi (88'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-845.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.86 to 1.93.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Oviedo -1. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Oviedo -1. Average expected value was 26.3%, with a combined stake of $193. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 15.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-193.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mallorca leading 1-0 at 44'. P. Torre scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Oviedo -0.5 and Oviedo -1.5. Average expected value was 24.5%, with a combined stake of $642. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 38.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 10 trades lost, netting $-642.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 48.8% (38.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 63.9% vs market's 48.5% (15.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 63.9% vs market's 48.8% (15.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 63.9% vs market's 49.4% (14.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -0.5: AI saw 63.1% vs market's 48.8% (14.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-172.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-172.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-181.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-310.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Mallorca's favor. Mallorca had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Oviedo's 7 (0 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 2.52 — Oviedo 0.29. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-10.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 66.7% / 22.3% / 14.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Mallorca's ability to cover the -1 Asian Handicap.
The match between Mallorca and Oviedo concluded with a decisive 3-0 victory for Mallorca. The 1x2 market accurately identified Mallorca as the favorite with a 66.67% probability. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market. While Mallorca was given a -1 line with a 54.35% chance to cover, their dominant 3-0 win easily surpassed this expectation, indicating a clear value signal on Mallorca -1. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market set the line at 2.5 goals with a slight lean towards the Over (51.81%). The actual total of 3 goals confirmed the Over, suggesting a moderate EV+ opportunity.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-10.00.
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