Mallorca2 - 1Espanyol
MallorcaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 28', 37', 78' — and still finish +$10007?
Match Overview
Mallorca hosted Espanyol in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: C. Pickel (36'), P. Torre (65'), Samu Costa (88'). Espanyol received a red card (C. Pickel, 54'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$10006.50 (ROI: +130.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Mallorca and Mallorca -0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 58.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 22.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$4152.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Mallorca -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Mallorca and Mallorca +0.5. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$4154.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Espanyol leading 0-1 at 37'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after P. Torre's equalizer at 65'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca -0.25. Average expected value was 2.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca +0.5: AI saw 85.0% vs market's 42.6% (42.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca +0.5: AI saw 84.8% vs market's 42.6% (42.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca +0.5: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 42.6% (42.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Mallorca: AI saw 58.6% vs market's 36.4% (22.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Moneyline Mallorca: AI saw 57.8% vs market's 36.4% (21.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$3304.50 (ROI: +132.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$3251.00 (ROI: +130.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$3251.00 (ROI: +130.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$200.00 (ROI: +100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 69%–31% in Mallorca's favor. Mallorca had 26 shots (12 on target) versus Espanyol's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: Mallorca 2.03 — Espanyol 1.3. Corners: 4-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$3304.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI on 16 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$3304.50.
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