Levante0 - 2Valencia
LevanteWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-966 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Levante hosted Valencia in the La Liga, finishing 0-2. Goals: L. Ramazani (64'), U. Sadiq (84'). Levante received a red card (K. Arriaga, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-965.70 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 2.97 to 2.67.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Levante. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $966. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-965.70.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-965.70 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Levante's deficit. Levante had 9 shots (1 on target) versus Valencia's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Levante 0.63 — Valencia 0.66. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 37.5% / 31.1% / 34.1% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Valencia's outright win and their ability to cover the 0 Asian Handicap.
The match between Levante and Valencia concluded 0-2 in favor of the away side. Analysis of the closing market prices reveals distinct inefficiencies. In the 1x2 Moneyline, the market implied a 37.45% chance for a Levante win and only 34.13% for Valencia, positioning Levante as the slight favorite. Valencia's decisive 2-0 victory demonstrates a clear mispricing, indicating significant Closing Line Value (CLV) on Valencia's outright win. The Asian Handicap market, set at a 0 line, also favored Levante to cover with a 53.48% probability against Valencia's 48.54%. Valencia's 2-goal margin effortlessly covered this line, further confirming the market's undervaluation. For the Totals (Over/Under 2.25), the market leaned towards the Over at 52.63% probability, with the Under at 50%. The match finished with 2 goals, falling Under the 2.25 line, suggesting another error in the market's total goals assessment. OddsFlow AI detected substantial EV+ opportunities on Valencia in both the 1x2 and Handicap markets.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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