Levante

4 - 2

Oviedo

Levante hosted Oviedo in the La Liga, finishing 4-2. Goals: C. Espi (4'), C. Espi (25'), I. Chaira (44'), F. Vinas (45' pen), I. Losada (52'), I. Romero (90'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 3 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-928.00 (ROI: -17.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.91; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.92; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.12 to 2.22.

### Wave 1 — Minute 49' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after F. Vinas's equalizer at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Oviedo 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 27.3%, with a combined stake of $2428. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 36.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2428.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 52' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Levante leading 3-2 at 52'. I. Losada scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Oviedo -1. Average expected value was 51.5%, with a combined stake of $1758. The sharpest edge was on Oviedo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 49.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 63' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Levante leading 3-2 at 63'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Levante. Average expected value was 35.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Levante (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1500.00.

- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 97.5% vs market's 47.6% (49.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 47.6% (49.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Moneyline Levante: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 40.0% (40.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo 0: AI saw 78.8% vs market's 42.6% (36.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Oviedo 0: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 42.6% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-462.00 (ROI: -17.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-466.00 (ROI: -18.0%)

Possession was 38%–62% in Levante's deficit. Levante had 20 shots (8 on target) versus Oviedo's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: Levante 1.87 — Oviedo 1.34. Corners: 3-1.