Levante3 - 2Osasuna
LevanteWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 36', 45' — and still finish $-1595?
Match Overview
Levante hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 3-2. Goals: J. Toljan (3' OG), A. Budimir (11'), A. Budimir (12'), V. Garcia (35'), V. Garcia (37'), K. Etta Eyong (90'). Osasuna received a red card (S. Herrera, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 3 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of $-1594.85 (ROI: -20.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Osasuna. Average expected value was 13.2%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Osasuna leading 1-2 at 36'. V. Garcia scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Levante +0.5 and Over 3.5 and Osasuna and Under 4.5 and Osasuna 0 and Under 5.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $6670. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 29.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 6 of 13 trades won, netting $-394.85. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after V. Garcia's equalizer at 37'. Osasuna down to 10 men (S. Herrera red card 45'). 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Osasuna -0.5. Average expected value was 30.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Osasuna -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.4% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 27.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna 0: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 42.1% (29.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna 0: AI saw 72.6% vs market's 43.5% (29.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.5: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 46.5% (27.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Osasuna -0.5: AI saw 74.1% vs market's 46.5% (27.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Levante +0.5: AI saw 73.9% vs market's 47.6% (26.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$713.85 (ROI: +42.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$220.00 (ROI: +110.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1108.00 (ROI: -52.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-1220.70 (ROI: -33.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67–33 in Levante's favor. Levante had 35 shots (12 on target) versus Osasuna's 5 (3 on target). Expected goals: Levante 3.2 — Osasuna 0.63. Corners: 15-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -20.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$713.85.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 37.9% / 30.9% / 34.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.25 goals market was significantly undervalued.
Levante secured a 3-2 victory over Osasuna, resulting in a total of 5 goals. In the 1x2 market, Levante was the slight market favorite at 37.88% implied probability, which aligned with their eventual win. The Asian Handicap, set at 0 goals, also saw Levante favored to cover at 54.05% implied probability; their 1-goal margin secured this. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.25, the market leaned 'Over' at 54.35%. The actual five goals scored far exceeded this expectation, indicating a strong EV+ signal for the Over 2.25 market. Bookmakers significantly underestimated the potential for a high-scoring affair.
A tough session at -20.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$713.85.
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