Levante2 - 0Mallorca
LevanteWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 10', 20', 34' — and still finish +$306?
Match Overview
Levante hosted Mallorca in the La Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: C. Espi (32'), K. Arriaga (87'). Mallorca received a red card (J. Mojica, 86'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 4 waves, achieving 86% precision with a net result of +$305.75 (ROI: +98.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.86.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 10.2%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 58.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Levante -0.5. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $110. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$120.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 20' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 20'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Levante. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $125. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$163.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Levante leading 1-0 at 34'. C. Espi scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Levante. Average expected value was 10.7%, with a combined stake of $64. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$32.00.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$163.75 (ROI: +131.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$120.00 (ROI: +109.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$32.00 (ROI: +50.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 29–71 in Levante's deficit. Levante had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Mallorca's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: Levante 1.27 — Mallorca 0.35. Corners: 4-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +98.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$163.75.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 46.5% / 28.6% / 27.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued the 'Over 2.5 Goals' proposition.
Levante secured a decisive 2-0 victory over Mallorca in this La Liga fixture. In the 1x2 market, the closing line had Levante as the slight favorite, aligning with the actual home win. The Asian Handicap of -0.25 for Levante was comfortably covered as they won by two goals, indicating that the market's assessment of Levante's strength was largely accurate. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the match ending with only 2 goals, the market closed with a strong lean towards Over 2.5 goals (52.63% implied probability). This suggests a clear mispricing by bookmakers, where the value lay squarely with the Under 2.5 goals selection, representing significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for astute bettors.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +98.9% ROI on 7 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$163.75.
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