Levante1 - 0Getafe
LevanteWhy did AI enter 2 times at 67', 72' — and still finish +$720?
Match Overview
Levante hosted Getafe in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: C. Espi (83'). Levante received a red card (C. Espi, 8'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$720.00 (ROI: +102.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.84; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 2.06 to 1.98.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 67'. Levante made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Levante -0.25. Average expected value was 2.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$220.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 72'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 72'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 50.0% (13.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$720.00 (ROI: +102.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63%–37% in Levante's favor. Levante had 22 shots (4 on target) versus Getafe's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Levante 2.9 — Getafe 0.29. Corners: 7-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.9% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.8% / 33.7% / 32.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Levante's outright win in the 1x2 market.
The La Liga fixture between Levante and Getafe concluded 1-0, a decisive home victory. OddsFlow analysis reveals a clear market inefficiency within the 1x2 market. Despite Levante's outright win, their implied probability in the closing 1x2 odds was a mere 36.76%. In contrast, the Asian Handicap (0.0) market had Levante priced at a more confident 54.35% to cover. The Total Goals line of 2.0 saw the 'Under' hit cleanly with just 1 goal, aligning with the market's slight lean (51.81%). This divergence indicates that while a low-scoring affair was anticipated, the traditional 1x2 market significantly undervalued Levante's outright winning potential, presenting a strong EV+ signal for discerning bettors.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.9% ROI on 2 trades.
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