Levante2 - 0Alaves
LevanteWhy did AI enter 2 times at 45', 76' — and still finish +$3095?
Match Overview
Levante hosted Alaves in the La Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: C. Espi (88'), C. Espi (89'), C. Espi (90'). Alaves received a red card (V. Parada, 61'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$3095.10 (ROI: +118.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alaves and Alaves 0. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $717. The sharpest edge was on Alaves 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 9.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-717.34. ### Wave 2 — Minute 76' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 76'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Levante. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $1906. The sharpest edge was on Levante (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.5% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 10.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$3812.44.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 76'** — Moneyline Levante: AI saw 43.5% vs market's 33.3% (10.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$3095.10 (ROI: +118.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in Levante's deficit. Levante had 22 shots (5 on target) versus Alaves's 16 (6 on target). Expected goals: Levante 2.24 — Alaves 1.28. Corners: 10-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +118.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 36.0% / 31.3% / 35.5% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervalued Home Win (Levante 1X2)
The La Liga fixture between Levante and Alaves concluded with a 2-0 victory for Levante. Analyzing the 1x2 market, the closing odds implied Levante had a 35.97% chance of winning, while Alaves had 35.46%, making Levante a marginal favorite. Despite this, the odds of 2.78 on Levante represented significant value as they secured the win. In the Asian Handicap (0 line), Levante was a slight favorite at 51.55% to cover, which they comfortably did with a two-goal margin. The Totals market (O/U 2.25) accurately leaned towards the Under with a 52.91% implied probability, as the match finished with only two goals. The most notable market inefficiency was the undervaluation of Levante's outright win, offering Closing Line Value (CLV) to bettors backing the home side.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +118.0% ROI on 3 trades.
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