Girona1 - 1Real Sociedad
GironaWhy did AI enter 8 times at 0', 10', 15', 24', 28', 35', 48', 66' — and still finish +$1438?
Match Overview
Girona hosted Real Sociedad in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. Martin (28'), C. Stuani (66'). OddsFlow deployed 47 trades across 8 waves, achieving 74% precision with a net result of +$1438.30 (ROI: +56.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.26 to 1.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 18.4%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 30.9% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad -0.5. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $125. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$116.45. ### Wave 3 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Sociedad -0.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $382. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.1% — a 7.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.92. **Result:** All 9 trades won, netting +$336.76. ### Wave 4 — Minute 24' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 24'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$119.88. ### Wave 5 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Girona and Girona +0.5 and Under 3 and Under 3.5 and Under 3.25 and Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 34.2%, with a combined stake of $1162. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 38.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** 12 of 17 trades won, netting +$428.83. ### Wave 6 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 0-1 at 35'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 6.2%, with a combined stake of $75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-75.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 0-1 at 48'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 21.9%, with a combined stake of $158. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 58.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.9% — a 11.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.13. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-158.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after C. Stuani's equalizer at 66'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 32.9%, with a combined stake of $452. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 55.1% probability versus the market's implied 30.8% — a 24.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.25. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$694.38.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 48.3% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 48.3% (38.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 53.5% (33.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 53.5% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Girona +0.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 54.1% (26.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 10W/1L, +$512.09 (ROI: +84.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 16 trades, 11W/5L, +$411.71 (ROI: +43.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 14 trades, 10W/4L, +$366.12 (ROI: +46.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$173.38 (ROI: +89.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 60–40 in Girona's favor. Girona had 29 shots (4 on target) versus Real Sociedad's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Girona 2.22 — Real Sociedad 0.33. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +56.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$512.09.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.4% / 25.6% / 25.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw.
The match between Girona and Real Sociedad concluded with a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market heavily favored Girona for a win, assigning a 52.36% implied probability. Conversely, the draw was given a significantly lower implied probability of 25.64%. This represents a clear Market Inefficiency, as the actual outcome was the less favored draw, indicating a strong EV+ value signal for bettors who identified the draw. In the Asian Handicap market, Girona, with a -0.5 line, failed to cover, reinforcing the market's misjudgment of their winning potential. The Totals market (O/U 2.75) was relatively balanced, but with only 2 goals scored, the Under option proved successful against a slight market lean towards the Over. The primary error was the overestimation of Girona's ability to secure a straight win.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +56.2% ROI on 47 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$512.09.
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