Girona2 - 3Real Betis
GironaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 47', 53' — and still finish $-767?
Match Overview
Girona hosted Real Betis in the La Liga, finishing 2-3. Goals: V. Tsygankov (7'), M. Roca (23'), M. Roca (24'), A. Ezzalzouli (63'), A. Ounahi (67' pen), R. Riquelme (80'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-767.40 (ROI: -22.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Real Betis 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.5%, with a combined stake of $1700. The sharpest edge was on Real Betis 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 21.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-160.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 53'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Real Betis 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.4%, with a combined stake of $1769. The sharpest edge was on Real Betis 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.9% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 23.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-607.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis 0: AI saw 68.9% vs market's 45.5% (23.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis 0: AI saw 67.4% vs market's 45.5% (21.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Real Betis 0: AI saw 67.1% vs market's 45.5% (21.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 60.0% (16.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 53'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 50.1% vs market's 40.0% (10.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$240.00 (ROI: +120.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-400.00 (ROI: -26.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-607.40 (ROI: -34.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–47% in Girona's favor. Girona had 9 shots (2 on target) versus Real Betis's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Girona 1.36 — Real Betis 0.68. Corners: 3-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -22.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$240.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 41.3% / 29.1% / 32.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 47.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The primary market error was the underestimation of Real Betis's outright win potential.
Girona vs Real Betis concluded with a 2-3 victory for Real Betis. The 1x2 market exhibited a clear inefficiency; despite Girona being the market favorite with a 41.32% win probability, Real Betis secured the away win. This represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for those who backed the away side. In the Handicap market, the line of Girona -0.25 saw Real Betis (+0.25) successfully cover, aligning with the model's higher probability for the underdog to cover (54.05%). The Totals market (O/U 2.5) accurately reflected the game's high scoring nature, with 5 goals scored. The market correctly leaned Over with a 52.91% probability, proving efficient. The primary market error was the underestimation of Real Betis's outright win potential.
A tough session at -22.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$240.00.
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