Girona0 - 1Mallorca
GironaWhy did AI enter 6 times at 15', 25', 44', 54', 80', 83' — and still finish +$7305?
Match Overview
Girona hosted Mallorca in the La Liga, finishing 0-1. Goals: Samu Costa (43'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 6 waves, achieving 88% precision with a net result of +$7304.70 (ROI: +78.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 2.08; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.83 to 2.07.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca 0. Average expected value was 18.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.4% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 15.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$320.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca 0. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 19.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2550.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mallorca leading 0-1 at 44'. Samu Costa scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Girona +0.5 and Mallorca and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 18.9%, with a combined stake of $4158. The sharpest edge was on Girona +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 33.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 5 of 7 trades won, netting +$1945.85. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mallorca leading 0-1 at 54'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.3% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$666.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 80' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mallorca leading 0-1 at 80'. Mallorca made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Girona +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Mallorca. Average expected value was 30.2%, with a combined stake of $1962. The sharpest edge was on Girona +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 35.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1459.35. ### Wave 6 — Minute 83' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mallorca leading 0-1 at 83'. Mallorca made 4 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Girona +0.5: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 45.5% (35.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Girona +0.5: AI saw 81.5% vs market's 48.2% (33.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Girona +0.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 48.2% (32.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 66.7% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Moneyline Mallorca: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 60.0% (20.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2812.08 (ROI: +84.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2349.78 (ROI: +70.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$1459.35 (ROI: +74.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$683.50 (ROI: +97.6%)
Match Statistics
Girona had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Mallorca's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +78.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2812.08.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.3% / 28.6% / 25.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Mallorca's outright win probability.
In the La Liga fixture between Girona and Mallorca, the final score was 0-1 in favor of Mallorca. The 1x2 market heavily favored Girona with an implied win probability of 48.31%, while Mallorca was priced as a clear underdog at 25.91%. Mallorca's outright victory signals a significant Market Inefficiency and Closing Line Value for those backing the away side. On the Asian Handicap, the line was set at Girona -0.5, with Mallorca's 0-1 win comfortably covering the alternative +0.5 line, demonstrating further misjudgment of their defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat. The Totals (Over/Under 2.5) market leaned slightly towards the Over with 51.81% implied probability, but the match ended with only 1 goal, resulting in an Under. This indicates another missed opportunity for bookmakers to accurately price the low-scoring nature of the game, confirming a strong Value Signal on the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +78.4% ROI on 17 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2812.08.
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