Girona1 - 1Elche
GironaWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 13', 16', 25', 44', 49', 59' — and still finish +$592?
Match Overview
Girona hosted Elche in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: A. Rodriguez (39'), A. Martinez (48'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 7 waves, achieving 74% precision with a net result of +$592.26 (ROI: +47.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.93; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.76 to 1.86.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 19.6%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 13' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche -0.5. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $125. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$126.80. ### Wave 3 — Minute 16' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 16'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Elche -0.5. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $253. The sharpest edge was on Elche -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.4% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.11. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$264.73. ### Wave 4 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.75 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 36.9%, with a combined stake of $435. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-60.09. ### Wave 5 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Elche leading 0-1 at 44'. A. Rodriguez scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Girona +0.5 and Elche. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $235. The sharpest edge was on Girona +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 33.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-13.62. ### Wave 6 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Martinez's equalizer at 48'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $125. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 44.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.0% — a 7.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$196.75. ### Wave 7 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Martinez's equalizer at 48'. Girona made 5 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$67.80.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Girona +0.5: AI saw 85.5% vs market's 51.9% (33.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 48.1% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 71.7% vs market's 48.1% (23.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 49.0% (22.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 71.7% vs market's 49.0% (22.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 7W/1L/2V, +$241.35 (ROI: +45.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$233.18 (ROI: +97.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/1L/2V, +$107.84 (ROI: +23.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.90 (ROI: +99.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56–44 in Girona's favor. Girona had 8 shots (6 on target) versus Elche's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: Girona 0.48 — Elche 0.22. Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$241.35.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 53.8% / 26.3% / 23.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the draw outcome.
The La Liga fixture between Girona and Elche concluded in a 1-1 draw. OddsFlow analysis indicates significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The closing line had Girona as strong favorites with a 53.76% implied win probability, while the draw was priced at a comparatively low 26.25%. The actual outcome of a draw presents clear Closing Line Value for those who bet on the stalemate. In the Asian Handicap market, Girona, favored at -0.5 with a 53.19% cover probability, failed to win, meaning Elche successfully covered the +0.5 line. For the Total Goals market, the line closed at 2.75, with a slight lean towards Over (51.81%). The actual two goals meant the Under 2.75 hit, another misjudgment by the market. The most notable error was the severe underestimation of the draw probability.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.6% ROI on 23 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$241.35.
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