Girona2 - 1Barcelona
GironaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Girona hosted Barcelona in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: P. Cubarsi (59'), T. Lemar (62'), F. Beltran (87'), J. Roca (87'). Girona received a red card (J. Roca, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1.5 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.94; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.75 to 3.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 6.35 to 7.63.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Barcelona +0.75. Average expected value was 10.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Barcelona +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.3% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Barcelona +0.75: AI saw 67.3% vs market's 56.3% (10.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 30%–70% in Girona's deficit. Girona had 13 shots (9 on target) versus Barcelona's 26 (4 on target). Expected goals: Girona 2.76 — Barcelona 2.81. Corners: 3-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 13.1% / 17.9% / 75.2% |
| Asian handicap | +1.5 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market profoundly underestimated Girona's capability in the 1x2 result.
Girona secured a 2-1 victory over Barcelona in La Liga. The 1x2 market heavily favored Barcelona with a 75.19% implied win probability. Girona's outright win at 13.11% probability represents a significant Market Inefficiency and a clear Value Signal for the underdog. On the Asian Handicap, Girona, given a +1.5 line, comfortably covered by winning the match outright. While the market priced Girona +1.5 at 51.55%, the outright win demonstrated a stronger performance than anticipated. For the Totals, the Closing Line was 3.5 goals, with the market leaning towards the Over at 53.48%. However, only 3 goals were scored, resulting in the Under 3.5 hitting. This indicates another Market Mispricing where the actual outcome diverged from the majority sentiment.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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