Girona3 - 0Athletic Club
GironaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 41', 46' — and still finish $-2169?
Match Overview
Girona hosted Athletic Club in the La Liga, finishing 3-0. Goals: H. Rincon (4'), A. Ounahi (77'), A. Ounahi (78'), C. Echeverri (90'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 3 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-2168.55 (ROI: -38.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.97; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Girona leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Athletic Club -0.5 and Girona. Average expected value was 19.3%, with a combined stake of $2991. The sharpest edge was on Girona (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 85.1% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 27.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$503.45. ### Wave 2 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Girona leading 1-0 at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Athletic Club -1. Average expected value was 33.4%, with a combined stake of $1672. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 31.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1672.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Girona leading 1-0 at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Athletic Club 0. Average expected value was 29.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 27.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -1: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 57.1% (31.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -1: AI saw 88.2% vs market's 57.1% (31.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 63.7% vs market's 36.4% (27.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Girona: AI saw 85.1% vs market's 57.9% (27.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club 0: AI saw 62.8% vs market's 36.4% (26.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-944.15 (ROI: -30.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1224.40 (ROI: -47.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Girona's deficit. Girona had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Athletic Club's 20 (9 on target). Expected goals: Girona 1.21 — Athletic Club 1.72. Corners: 2-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -38.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-944.15.
A tough session at -38.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-944.15.
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