Getafe2 - 1Villarreal
Getafe1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Getafe hosted Villarreal in the La Liga, finishing 2-1. Goals: M. Arambarri (41' pen), M. Satriano (53'), G. Mikautadze (76'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$2805.40 (ROI: +250.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 2.01; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.87 to 3.67.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Getafe. Average expected value was 22.4%, with a combined stake of $1122. The sharpest edge was on Getafe (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.0% probability versus the market's implied 28.6% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$2805.40.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$2805.40 (ROI: +250.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 44%–56% in Getafe's deficit. Getafe had 5 shots (2 on target) versus Villarreal's 7 (2 on target). Expected goals: Getafe 1.48 — Villarreal 0.65. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +250.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 27.3% / 32.4% / 43.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Getafe's win probability and the likelihood of Over 2.0 goals.
The match between Getafe and Villarreal concluded 2-1, a result that highlighted significant **market inefficiencies**. The 1x2 market heavily favored Villarreal with an implied win probability of 43.1%, while Getafe's outright win was priced at a mere 27.25%. This presented substantial **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on Getafe, as their victory defied the bookmakers' expectations. In the Asian Handicap market, with a line of 0.25, the market perceived both sides as roughly equal (51.02% probability for Getafe +0.25 and 51.02% for Villarreal -0.25). Getafe's 2-1 win meant they easily **covered the spread** as the underdog. Furthermore, the Total Goals market, set at 2.0, leaned towards the Under with a 52.91% implied probability. However, the game saw 3 goals, resulting in the **Over 2.0** hitting. This indicates another area where the market sentiment was misaligned with the actual outcome, presenting a clear **EV+ signal** for astute bettors.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +250.0% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.