Getafe0 - 2Rayo Vallecano
GetafeWhy did AI enter 3 times at 49', 53', 63' — and still finish +$502?
Match Overview
Getafe hosted Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga, finishing 0-2. Goals: S. Camello (38'), R. Nteka (73'), R. Nteka (74'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 77% precision with a net result of +$501.50 (ROI: +7.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 2.06; the home moneyline shortened from 2.43 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 0-1 at 49'. Getafe made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Getafe +0.5. Average expected value was 45.9%, with a combined stake of $1684. The sharpest edge was on Getafe +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 43.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1684.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 0-1 at 53'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Getafe +0.5 and Rayo Vallecano and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 12.3%, with a combined stake of $3816. The sharpest edge was on Getafe +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.1% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 43.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$783.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 0-1 at 63'. M. Arambarri scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano 0. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $1700. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1402.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Getafe +0.5: AI saw 85.1% vs market's 41.2% (43.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Getafe +0.5: AI saw 85.6% vs market's 42.1% (43.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Getafe +0.5: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 42.6% (43.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano 0: AI saw 69.2% vs market's 54.8% (14.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano 0: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 54.8% (14.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$165.00 (ROI: +82.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$129.50 (ROI: +5.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$107.50 (ROI: +4.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$99.50 (ROI: +4.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–43% in Getafe's favor. Getafe had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Rayo Vallecano's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +7.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$165.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 51.3% / 31.1% / 20.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Rayo Vallecano in both the 1x2 and Asian Handicap markets.
In a significant upset, Rayo Vallecano secured a commanding 0-2 away victory against Getafe. The 1x2 market heavily favored Getafe with a 51.28% win probability, while Rayo Vallecano was priced at a mere 20.7%. This outcome represents a substantial market inefficiency, with the underdog delivering a convincing win. The Asian Handicap market further highlighted this error, pricing Getafe at -0.5 with a 51.02% chance to cover. Rayo Vallecano's 2-0 victory easily covered their implied +0.5 handicap, demonstrating Closing Line Value (CLV) for those backing the away side. For the Totals market, the line was set at 2 goals, with a slight lean towards the Under (53.76% probability). The final score of 0-2 resulted in exactly 2 goals, leading to a push on a standard O/U 2.0 line. While not a dramatic misprice, the market's lean towards 'Under' did not anticipate the exact total hitting the line, and certainly missed the home team's inability to score.
A positive result with +7.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$501.50. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$165.00.
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