Getafe1 - 0Osasuna
GetafeWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 15', 38', 45', 49', 60' — and still finish $-219?
Match Overview
Getafe hosted Osasuna in the La Liga, finishing 1-0. Goals: L. Milla (59'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 6 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-219.38 (ROI: -24.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.75 to 1.85; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 1.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.75. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 12.3%, with a combined stake of $180. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-180.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.75 and Over 1. Average expected value was 31.6%, with a combined stake of $320. The sharpest edge was on Over 1 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 22.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$45.60. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.75. Average expected value was 19.2%, with a combined stake of $63. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.1% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.92. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$28.98. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 16.7%, with a combined stake of $122. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.9% — a 15.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.82. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$100.04. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 59.9%, with a combined stake of $204. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 54.1% probability versus the market's implied 24.1% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4.15. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-204.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 54.1% vs market's 24.1% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 54.1% vs market's 24.1% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Over/Under Over 1: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.2% (22.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Over/Under Over 1: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.2% (22.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Over 0.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.1% (17.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-31.02 (ROI: -25.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/3L/2V, $-81.18 (ROI: -21.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/3L/2V, $-97.18 (ROI: -24.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54–46 in Getafe's favor. Getafe had 6 shots (3 on target) versus Osasuna's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Getafe 0.2 — Osasuna 0.38. Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -24.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-10.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 35.6% / 35.7% / 31.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 1.75 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the goal-scoring potential, making Under 1.75 Goals an EV+ opportunity.
Getafe secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Osasuna in La Liga. The 1x2 market saw Getafe (35.59%) and Draw (35.71%) priced as near co-favorites. Getafe's win aligned with their slightly higher probability compared to Osasuna. In the Asian Handicap market, with a 0-line, Getafe was marginally favored to cover at 54.05%, which they successfully did with their 1-goal win. However, the most significant mispricing occurred in the Totals market. The closing Over/Under line was 1.75, with the market leaning towards the Over (52.36% implied probability). The final score of 1-0 resulted in only 1 goal, unequivocally triggering an Under outcome. This divergence highlights a clear market inefficiency where goal-scoring potential was substantially overestimated.
A tough session at -24.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-10.00.
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