Getafe3 - 1Mallorca
GetafeWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 15', 25', 34' — and still finish +$6?
Match Overview
Getafe hosted Mallorca in the La Liga, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Satriano (14'), M. Satriano (41'), Z. Romero (63'), O. Mascarell (65'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 21% precision with a net result of +$6.43 (ROI: +0.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 2; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 2.09; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.12 to 2.37.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $327. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$356.43. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Getafe leading 1-0 at 15'. M. Satriano scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca 0 and Mallorca -1. Average expected value was 54.1%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 34.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting $-150.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Getafe leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Mallorca 0 and Mallorca -1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 41.8%, with a combined stake of $3482. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting +$800.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Getafe leading 1-0 at 34'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mallorca -0.5. Average expected value was 34.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Mallorca -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 32.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca 0: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 54.1% (34.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca -1: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 51.9% (34.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca 0: AI saw 88.0% vs market's 54.1% (33.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca 0: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 52.4% (33.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Mallorca 0: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 54.6% (33.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$356.43 (ROI: +109.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -4.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -4.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/2L/1V, $-150.00 (ROI: -42.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 40–60 in Getafe's deficit. Getafe had 6 shots (4 on target) versus Mallorca's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Getafe 1.62 — Mallorca 0.38. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +0.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$356.43.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.2% / 32.8% / 27.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 47.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, providing clear EV+ on Over 2.0.
Getafe secured a dominant 3-1 victory over Mallorca. In the 1x2 market, Getafe was the pre-match favorite (42.19% implied probability) and validated this with the win, indicating general market accuracy here. For the Asian Handicap, Getafe successfully covered the -0.25 line, despite the market slightly favoring Mallorca to cover (51.81% for away to cover). The most glaring **market inefficiency** was observed in the Totals market. The closing **Over/Under line** was set at 2.0 goals, with the market leaning heavily towards the **Under** (54.64% probability). However, the match produced 4 goals, easily hitting the **Over**. This represents a significant **EV+ signal** for the Over 2.0, where bookmakers clearly underestimated the goal-scoring potential.
A positive result with +0.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$6.43. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$356.43.
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