Getafe0 - 0Celta Vigo
GetafeWhy did AI enter 2 times at 49', 71' — and still finish +$0?
Match Overview
Getafe hosted Celta Vigo in the La Liga, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 1.96; the Over/Under stayed at 1.75 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 1.98.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Getafe 0. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $167. The sharpest edge was on Getafe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.5% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 71'. Celta Vigo made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Getafe 0. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $33. The sharpest edge was on Getafe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.1% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.125. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/0L/2V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39%–61% in Getafe's deficit. Getafe had 9 shots (2 on target) versus Celta Vigo's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: Getafe 0.35 — Celta Vigo 0.1. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: None | 33.8% / 35.0% / 33.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 1.75 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Under 1.75 Goals market offered significant value.
The fixture between Getafe and Celta Vigo concluded in a 0-0 draw. In the 1x2 market, the draw probability was priced at 34.97% by our model, indicating a slight underestimation given the final goalless result. The Handicap (0) market saw both sides with roughly 51.02% probability to cover; the 0-0 result meant neither team covered, suggesting the market skewed towards a definitive winner. The most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under 1.75 goals) market. With a final score of 0-0, the Under 1.75 goals hit comfortably. Our model projected the Under at 52.08% probability, a clear indication of a Value Signal on the low-scoring outcome that bookmakers did not fully price in.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
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