Getafe2 - 0Athletic Club
GetafeWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 33', 38' — and still finish +$289?
Match Overview
Getafe hosted Athletic Club in the La Liga, finishing 2-0. Goals: L. Vazquez (14'), M. Satriano (14'), M. Satriano (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$288.70 (ROI: +5.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 2.06; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.84 to 3.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Getafe leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Athletic Club -0.5 and Getafe. Average expected value was 21.0%, with a combined stake of $4704. The sharpest edge was on Athletic Club -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 21.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting $-438.30. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Getafe leading 1-0 at 33'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Getafe leading 1-0 at 38'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -0.5: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 48.2% (21.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -0.5: AI saw 69.7% vs market's 48.2% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -0.5: AI saw 69.4% vs market's 48.2% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Athletic Club -0.5: AI saw 68.8% vs market's 48.2% (20.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 57.9% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$291.14 (ROI: +16.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$56.92 (ROI: +2.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-59.36 (ROI: -4.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32%–68% in Getafe's deficit. Getafe had 9 shots (5 on target) versus Athletic Club's 4 (0 on target). Expected goals: Getafe 2.14 — Athletic Club 0.37. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +5.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$291.14.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 32.5% / 34.7% / 36.1% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 1.75 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued Getafe's home win potential.
Getafe secured a commanding 2-0 victory over Athletic Club. The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Getafe's potential for a home win, assigning them only a 32.47% probability, while Athletic Club was slightly favored at 36.1%. This represents a clear Value Signal for the home side. In the Handicap market (line 0), Athletic Club was again marginally favored to cover with 54.05% probability, yet Getafe won by a convincing two-goal margin, comfortably covering the spread. The Totals market (O/U 1.75 goals) was relatively efficient; the market slightly leaned towards the Over (51.81%), and the match indeed saw 2 goals, landing on the Over.
A positive result with +5.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$288.70. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$291.14.
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