Espanyol1 - 1Real Sociedad
EspanyolWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 15', 23', 29', 54' — and still finish +$200?
Match Overview
Espanyol hosted Real Sociedad in the La Liga, finishing 1-1. Goals: O. Oskarsson (28'), O. Oskarsson (29'), R. Fernandez Jaen (65'). OddsFlow deployed 28 trades across 5 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$199.51 (ROI: +10.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Sociedad. Average expected value was 35.1%, with a combined stake of $32. The sharpest edge was on Real Sociedad (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.0% probability versus the market's implied 30.4% — a 12.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.29. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-32.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 16.3%, with a combined stake of $246. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$438.30. ### Wave 3 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 23'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 64.3% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$43.62. ### Wave 4 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Real Sociedad leading 0-1 at 29'. O. Oskarsson scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Espanyol +0.5 and Real Sociedad and Under 3.25. Average expected value was 19.8%, with a combined stake of $759. The sharpest edge was on Espanyol +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 7 of 13 trades won, netting +$168.94. ### Wave 5 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 54'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.25 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 24.9%, with a combined stake of $789. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 18.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting $-419.35.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Espanyol +0.5: AI saw 75.0% vs market's 49.4% (25.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Espanyol +0.5: AI saw 74.8% vs market's 49.4% (25.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Espanyol +0.5: AI saw 74.3% vs market's 49.4% (24.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 53.2% (19.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 54.1% (19.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 12 trades, 7W/3L/2V, +$320.61 (ROI: +48.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 6W/3L/2V, +$284.26 (ROI: +51.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$43.62 (ROI: +72.7%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-32.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-416.97 (ROI: -71.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50–50 in Espanyol's deficit. Espanyol had 16 shots (7 on target) versus Real Sociedad's 8 (4 on target). Expected goals: Espanyol 1.78 — Real Sociedad 1.21. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +10.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$320.61.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.3% / 27.1% / 30.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervalued Draw in 1x2 Market
The match concluded with a 1-1 draw between Espanyol and Real Sociedad. The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the draw outcome, with our model indicating only a 27.1% implied probability for a stalemate, despite it being the actual result. Espanyol, priced as the market favorite, failed to secure a win or cover the Asian Handicap of -0.25. The Totals market for Over/Under 2.75 goals showed greater efficiency, with the actual 2 goals falling in line with the market's slight lean towards the Under (52.08% probability). This highlights a clear discrepancy in the 1x2 market's assessment of draw likelihood.
A positive result with +10.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$199.52. Top performer: Active Trader at +$320.61.
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