Espanyol

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Getafe

Espanyol hosted Getafe in the La Liga, finishing 1-2. Goals: C. Ngonge (15'), R. Terrats (31'), D. Duarte (45'), M. Arambarri (45'), R. Fernandez Jaen (68'). Getafe received a red card (J. Bordalas Jimenez, 87'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 1 wave, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$2048.20 (ROI: +70.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 2.08; the Over/Under stayed at 1.75 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.89.

### Wave 1 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Getafe leading 0-1 at 48'. M. Arambarri scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Getafe 0 and Espanyol +0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 35.7%, with a combined stake of $2918. The sharpest edge was on Getafe 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 38.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$2048.20.

- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Getafe 0: AI saw 77.3% vs market's 38.5% (38.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Getafe 0: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 43.5% (34.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Espanyol +0.5: AI saw 76.3% vs market's 42.1% (34.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Espanyol +0.5: AI saw 76.0% vs market's 42.1% (33.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1360.70 (ROI: +79.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$687.50 (ROI: +56.6%)

Possession was 66%–34% in Espanyol's favor. Espanyol had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Getafe's 8 (4 on target). Expected goals: Espanyol 1.73 — Getafe 0.98. Corners: 12-9.